Where are the undervotes?
Taking a look at Maricopa County's closest, biggest races and where people chose not to cast a vote.
While votes are still being counted in Arizona, let’s take a closer look at some of the tightest races in Maricopa County, since that’s the only county that has easy access to undervotes and other granular information.
To find that information go here (or go through the county site to previous election results and find the write-in votes PDF). Some of the races below show you exactly why every vote matters. Just like it did for Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes who won her 2022 race by 280 votes. Or Congresswoman-elect Yassmin Ansari who won her primary election by 38 votes. Congressman Andy Biggs, who just won his fifth congressional election, won his 2016 primary by 27 votes… you get the point.
Many Arizonans chose to not vote in single-seat races and their votes could have made the difference. In my opinion, that shouldn’t fall to the voter, but candidates should try to self-reflect and understand why their constituents opted to not vote for anybody rather than vote for them. Politicians have to earn votes, nothing should be guaranteed.
Before we get to the races, here is a quick explainer for “undervoting.”
If the race is for a “vote not for more than one candidate,” an “undervote” would mean the voter did not select a candidate. For races where you must pick two (like the Arizona House) or three (like the Corporation Commission) an “undervote” could mean: no votes at all, only voted for one person1, or voted for two in the case of Corp Comm.
President
Out of 1,634,571 votes for president in Maricopa County as of 4 pm Fri. November 8, there are 7,806 undervotes tallied thus far. (4,573 ballots picked multiple candidates, their votes do not count.) Here is how that compares to previous election years: In 2020, 2,089,563 votes were cast for president in Maricopa County. There were 8,475 undervotes. Biden won by ~10,000 votes. In 2016, there were 1,567,834 votes and 19,256 undervotes.
Right now, Trump leads Harris by 161,678 votes. Undervotes would not have mattered in this instance.
U.S. Senate
Total votes: 1,615,518; 30,976 undervotes.
Ruben Gallego (D) leads Kari Lake (R) by 36,748 votes.
CD1
Total votes: 358,351 votes; 15,878 undervotes
David Schweikert (R) leads Dr. Amish Shah by 15,306 votes
This race has been called for Schweikert.
LD2 Senate
Total votes: 81,963; 3,789 undervotes
Shawnna Bolick (R) leads Judy Schwiebert (D) by 3,495 votes
Dems need this one to flip the Senate in their favor. Republicans could keep its 16-14 split (or better) depending on what happens here.
LD4 Sen
Total votes: 121,678; 5,062 undervotes
Carine Werner (R) leads Christine Marsh (D) by 3,710
This would be a huge pickup for the Republicans.
LD9 Sen
Total votes: 62,706; 3,205 undervotes
Eva Burch (D) leads Robert Scantleberry (R) by 1,231 votes
Burch’s national profile grew tenfold this year after she shared her abortion story on the Senate floor. Even though Arizonans approved a ballot measure enshrining abortion rights in the state constitution, Burch could possibly lose her seat in the same election.
Some countywide races and valley mayoral races. These are the biggest races where undervotes could be the nail in the coffin for Democrats across the board. Dems picked up the Sheriff’s Office and Recorder’s Office in 2016 but have so far not been able to flip any other seats in 2020 and possibly 2024. Instead they lost the Recorder’s Office in 2020 and now the Sheriff’s Office in 2024. Their chances of flipping the Board of Supervisors (or even picking up a single seat) are slowly slipping away from them unless there are some good Democratic ballot drops that will happen in the next few days.
See remaining ballot counts here.
Also referred to as single-shotting a candidate