The money in LD2, LD4 and LD9
Democrats in three of Arizona's competitive legislative districts are outraising their Republican opponents, except for the one backed by Doug Ducey
Gov. Doug Ducey’s budget director, Matt Gress, is really good at fundraising, but it pays (literally) to have a prolific fundraiser and head of the Republican Governors Association as your boss.
Out of the 16 candidates running for Senate and House in LD2, LD4 and LD9 (three of the five competitive legislative races this year), Gress, who is running for one of two LD4 House seasts, has outraised them all.
But after Gress, every single Democrat has outraised their opponents.
Jeanne Casteen over State Rep. Steve Kaiser for LD2 Senate; State Rep. Judy Schwiebert over State Rep. Justin Wilmeth and Christian Lamar for LD2 House; State Sen. Christine Marsh over State Sen. Nancy Barto for LD4 Senate; Laura Terech over Maria Syms for LD4 House; Eva Burch over Robert Scantlebury for LD9 Senate; and Seth Blattman and Lorena Austin over Mary Ann Mendoza and Kathy Pearce for LD9 House.
That’s a lot of names to take in so let’s dig into each district.
For a rundown of the candidates in each of the competitive races make sure to check out Arizona Agenda’s write up from September 30 for a primer.
And here’s my write up from yesterday on the statewide races showing all Democrats leading the way.
Legislative District 2
Casteen, the executive director of the Secular Coalition for Arizona, previously ran for the Maricopa County Superintendent’s Office in 2020. That likely helped her pick up some more dollars in this heated race against a one-term incumbent in Kaiser.
She raised $111,000 for the quarter ending on Sept. 30, spent $90,000 and was left with $120,000 on hand heading into October.
Kaiser, the LD15 incumbent, by comparison, raised about $60,000 for Q3, spent less than $40,000 and had $47,000 left in his account for the final weeks of the race.
In the House, there are three candidates running for two seats and two of the people are incumbents.
Schwiebert, a former teacher, won her LD20 race in 2020 and received more votes than both Shawnna Bolick, the future former legislator, and Anthony Kern, the former and future lawmaker. Democrats made a choice to single-shot Schwiebert in this race, which could come back to bite them (a trend this cycle).
She brought in just under $100,000 for the quarter and spent all of it and more at $107,000 leaving her with a still impressive $153,000. Not having a primary race worked out for her finances.
Wilmeth, Kaiser’s current LD15 seat mate and former legislative staffer, finished second in Q3 with his paltry $30,000. He spent $42,000, and had $16,000 left to start the final stretch. He still raised more than the other Republican in the field and has the power of incumbency on his side.
Finishing dead last in the race is Christian Lamar, Bolick’s handpicked replacement who is an original Stop the Steal supporter and IT worker, barely raised anything for the months between July and September. He brought in $10,000 and only spent $8,000. He had $11,000 remaining in his account.
There was a decent amount of PAC spending in this race and the trends in general split along party lines.
Casteen and Schwiebert appeared to receive a majority of their individual contributions from everyday folk compared to Kaiser and Wilmeth who received theirs from lobbyists and consultants –– the very ones who will push bills through the legislature next session that these two would likely sponsor or at least vote for.
From PACs, the two Democrats received support from labor unions and national progressive groups hoping to flip state houses like Swing Left and End Citizens United. The Republicans got nice checks from the GEO Group, the private prison company, the utilities SRP, Pinnacle West (APS) and Southwest Gas.
Lamar on the other hand received contributions from the Arizona Free Enterprise Club, which now tends to lean more into MAGA conservatism rather than traditional conservative values.
Legislative District 4
Marsh vs. Barto is the only one-on-one race between two incumbents and it will be Barto’s toughest challenge in her entire career which dates back to 2006. She has not lost an election.
Marsh, a former teacher of the year and LD28 senator, outraised her opponent $175,000 to $155,000. Barto did loan herself $20,000, though. She outspent Barto, the LD15 senator, $177,000 to $163,000 but Marsh maintains a larger war chest headed into the final stretch. She had $151,000 left in her coffers compared to Barto’s $94,000.
For the House, Gress raised the most here and a lot of credit goes to the typical Ducey network of contributors plus the traditional lobbying class. He pulled in $143,000 and sits among the top legislative candidates overall for his fundraising without giving himself a single cent. Gress has raised $430,000 for the cycle through September and will likely hit half a million dollars for his legislative race.
He spent $202,000 this quarter and remains with $46,000 to spend.
Terech, another teacher, raised a respectable $107,000 for Q3 in her first ever race which walloped former lawmaker Maria Syms’ modest haul of $37,000. Syms only spent $4,600 which doesn’t seem to bode well for her hopeful return to the legislature especially after voters rejected her bid in 2018.1
Terech has $82,000 left to spend before October and Syms was sitting on $60,000.
Like LD2, the Democrats are being backed by regular people and the same progressive groups and labor unions. Gress is in a similar boat to Kaiser and Wilmeth whereas Barto and Syms are more closely in tune with Lamar.
Barto received the max each from Diamondbacks owner Ken Kendrick and his prolific donor wife Randy. She also received contributions from the Free Enterprise Club and GEO Group.
Syms had some interesting contributors as well. Former Gov. Fife Symington; Steve Twist; Dan Brophy (and his wife), the brother of Syms foe Kate Brophy McGee; as well as Free Enterprise and GEO Group.
Syms also received a transfer from State Rep. Joseph Chaplik’s committee, he’s not running in a contested general election, and conventional wisdom shows if elected Syms would back Chaplik for House Speaker over House Majority Leader Ben Toma.
Legislative District 9
The trio of Democrats in LD9 are crushing the three Republicans running. Just to show how bad it is for the MAGA slate in this East Valley district, Seth Blattman, one of the House candidates, raised the least of the Dems with $63,000 for the quarter. That alone is more than the combined $50,000 from the Republicans.
Eva Burch, a nurse, raised the most in the field with $105,000. Her opponent, Robert Scantlebury, a retired Mesa police officer who was once named in an excessive force claim and now owns his own tractor service, raised just under $25,000. Burch spent $96,000 to Scantlebury’s $8,300.
Blattman, a small business owner who lost to State Sen. Michelle Ugenti-Rita in LD23 Senate in 2020 before moving to the LD9 district, spent $57,000. He’s running with Lorena Austin, who raised an impressive $85,000 and spent almost $100,000 for the quarter.
Kathy Pearce, the sister of Russell Pearce, and Mary Ann Mendoza, an Angel mom who likes to share antisemitic posts and QAnon, raised $13,600 and $12,900 for the quarter, respectively. Mendoza only spent $868 over the three-month period and Pearce spent just shy of $2,000.
What’s interesting in this race is not only is it the only competitive district that leans Democrat, but the usual GOP spenders who contributed to the trio of Republicans here did not give their usual amount. While you’d usually see Steve Twist give in the thousands to people he backs, he only gave $250 to Scantlebury.
Former U.S. Senate candidate Jim Lamon, who loaned himself millions of dollars in his failed bid, also gave money to the three GOP candidates here.
One PAC called Solutions Arizona spent a good chunk in some independent expenditures this quarter which benefitted Casteen, Marsh, Terech and Katie Hobbs for governor also opposes Barto and Kern (who is running for LD27 Senate against a successful write-in candidate Brittani Barraza). I traced the group back to Heather Carter, the former lawmaker who recently switched her registration from Republican to independent and has condemned many election-denying Republicans.
Barto ousted Carter in the LD15 Senate primary in 2020, Carter is now apparently seeking some revenge.
Syms pissed off a lot of people in LD28 that cycle and actually got Ducey to withdraw his support of her because she enlisted her husband to run against incumbent Senator Kate Brophy McGee despite virtually every Republican in the district saying don’t do that. Mark Syms was thrown off the ballot over fraudulent signatures, Brophy McGee narrowly defeated Marsh in the general (she lost to Marsh in 2020) and Syms linked up with soon-to-be AZGOP Chair Kelli Ward as they both moved further to the right and lost respect of the Republicans who live in LD28 and now LD4.